BOA’s Art Market Report Is Optimistic Ahead of Spring Auction Test

New York’s soon-to-arrive spring auctions and art fairs may serve as the art market’s most consequential test—its moment to demonstrate resilience amid the ongoing cascade of disruptions. While the major houses have secured significant consignments and prestigious collections this season—suggesting a degree of confidence on the buyer side, from Christie’s $250 million Leonard and Louise Riggio collection to the dealer troves of Barbara Gladstone (which is expected to top $12 million) and Daniella Luxembourg (which could hit $30 million) at Sotheby’s—these agreements were finalized before the tariff news that surfaced in April. But even if the supply constraints that contributed to two consecutive years of declining auction totals appear to have eased, collector demand remains uncertain, according to the latest Bank of America Art Market Update.

“The New York spring auction season will be an important test of the U.S. art market and provide critical data on the direction of the market for the second half of 2025 and beyond,” Drew Watson, head of art services at Bank of America (BAC) Private Bank, told Observer. Watson noted that although auction totals have fallen significantly over the past three years amid inflation and high interest rates—declining 12 percent in 2024 to an estimated $57.5 billion, according to the latest Art Basel and UBS Art Market Report—there are early signs of recovery, helped by increased clarity around the 2024 election and last year’s rate cuts, even as the market contends with continued volatility.

“In a season with still relatively low levels of discretionary selling, we are nevertheless seeing some green shoots: the slow return of major single-owner sales such as the Riggio collection, recent announcements of $10 million-plus evening sale lots and a robust market for art lending,” Watson added.

SEE ALSO: Art Market Insights: 2024 Saw More Transactions But Fewer Record-Setting Sales

Expectations remain high, even as the survey and other reports confirm that sales at the top end of the market (works priced between $10 million and $100 million) have contracted dramatically, falling 45.5 percent in 2024—nearly four times the rate of decline seen for works priced under $1 million, which dropped 12.5 percent. While this contraction was primarily driven by supply shortages, it has also played a significant role in the overall decline in market value. With supply now appearing stronger in both quality and quantity, there is cautious optimism that this could help lift total figures across the board.

Nonetheless, Bank of America’s analysis confirms that buyers remain cautious and strategic, with demand increasingly concentrated around established, market-tested names, rather than the ultracontemporary speculative bubbles that defined the pandemic-era market. This trend was also reflected in the recent Hiscox 100 Artists Index. According to the data, the most significant drops in 2024 were seen among young contemporary works and Old Masters (each down over 45 percent), followed by impressionist and Modern works (down 29 percent and 32 percent, respectively), while the Postwar and established contemporary sectors proved comparatively resilient.

This season, collectors will most likely be pursuing the “safe bets”—artists with strong reputations, major gallery backing, museum exhibition histories and a consistent track record on the secondary market. But how much we can rely on institutional cachet as a transparent metric is increasingly debatable, especially considering the growing role of major galleries in shaping museum visibility through funding, as was recently examined by Zachary Small and Julia Halperin in the New York Times. Still, in this auction cycle, we can expect the strongest performance from more historical and market-tested contemporary artists, with collectors remaining highly selective and focused on acquiring only the most exceptional examples available within their reach.

Women collectors are on the rise

One of the most interesting developments highlighted in the BOA report is the growing prominence and influence of women collectors. As of 2023, women controlled roughly one-third of U.S. household wealth, and this shift not only signals a potential evolution in collecting tastes but, more significantly, a transformation in collecting habits: women collectors and investors tend to be more deliberate in their purchases, prioritizing thorough research and long-term strategies.

Importantly, women who collect art tend to prioritize work by women artists—now the most dynamic category across price ranges, as recently affirmed by another Art Basel and UBS report. Their 2024 Survey of Global Collecting found that the proportion of works by women artists in high-net-worth collections rose sharply from 33 percent in 2018 to 44 percent in 2023.

The Bank of America data highlights collectors such as Sarah Arison, Victoria Rogers, Lisa Perry and Komal Shah as emblematic of how women collectors often align their acquisitions with philanthropic aims, placing greater emphasis on patronage and long-term support than on immediate investment returns.

This season, the influence of women collectors and dealers is particularly visible. As previously noted, Sotheby’s will auction work from the collections of Barbara Gladstone and Daniella Luxembourg. Christie’s, meanwhile, will present the trove from the Fort Worth Bass House, largely shaped by Ann Bass’s refined taste, which is expected to surpass $60 million. Looking back at the top consignments of last season, two of the most successful collections were assembled by women: Mica Ertegun’s collection at Christie’s achieved a white-glove result, totaling roughly $196 million across six sales, while Emily Fisher Landau’s trove brought in $424.7 million at Sotheby’s via a series of auctions in 2023 and 2024.

Auction diversification in offers, sale channels and geographies

As auction houses waited for the top end of the market to regain momentum, they also moved aggressively to diversify their offerings and expand their global reach, with particular attention to emerging markets such as the Middle East. Following a $1 billion investment from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ, Sotheby’s held its first auction in Saudi Arabia: a multi-category sale of 117 lots spanning fine art, Michael Jordan’s jersey and other sports memorabilia that closed at $17.3 million, including three lots exceeding $1 million. Sotheby’s, in particular, has been working to expand its definition of “luxury,” transforming the house’s sleek new headquarters in Hong Kong and Paris—and soon in New York—into hybrid spaces that function both as traditional auction houses and boutiques. The goal is to craft destination experiences that are exclusive yet accessible, especially for a younger and increasingly global high-net-worth audience.

High-end collectibles such as the $44.6 million Apex dinosaur skeleton (the highest price ever paid for a fossil), the $11.4 million Stradivari violin crafted in 1714 and the $12.48 million Tiffany Danner Memorial Window have helped Sotheby’s generate as many headlines as traditional art masterpieces in recent months. As Sotheby’s CEO Charles Stewart affirmed at the start of the year when reporting 2024 revenues, the firm’s focus for 2025 will be on “venturing into new markets, unveiling spectacular venues around the globe and welcoming a new generation of collectors to discover another world of art and luxury.”

At the same time, Christie’s has also been expanding its presence in the Gulf, appointing Nour Kelani to lead its Saudi division after securing a commercial license to operate in the Kingdom. The auction house has likewise been actively diversifying its offerings to engage new audiences, most recently hosting its first-ever auction dedicated to A.I. art, which brought in $728,784 across thirty lots last March, surpassing pre-sale expectations. During her appointment speech, Christie’s new CEO Bonnie Brennan emphasized that advancing new technologies and cultivating next-generation buyer segments will be among the house’s top priorities.

SEE ALSO: What the Art World Needs to Know About the Next Generation of Museum Patrons

In 2024, Christie’s reported an 18 percent increase in new buyers of 20th- and 21st-century art, with millennial collectors accounting for 38 percent of global spending. Similarly, Sotheby’s has noted a surge in Millennial and Gen Z buyers across all categories, particularly in Hong Kong, where nearly 32 percent of auction bidders are under 40.

Meanwhile, private sales have played an increasingly central role in sustaining auction house earnings throughout this period of uncertainty, as all three major houses worked to meet the growing demand for more discreet buying and selling channels. According to the latest Art Basel and UBS report, private sales rose 14 percent year-over-year to reach $4.4 billion in 2024. Christie’s reported a record high in private sales last year with a 41 percent increase, while Sotheby’s saw a 17 percent rise over the same period. As auction houses continue to refine their strategies, Bank of America experts expect private sales and third-party guarantees to remain critical instruments for maintaining performance going forward.

Brighter futures ahead?

According to Watson, the overall picture emerging is far more optimistic than expected. Despite ongoing turbulence and cyclical highs and lows, Bank of America’s surveys show that market sentiment is improving, reaching a three-year high even amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. As of February 2025—again, prior to the latest tariff announcements—52 percent of experts surveyed by Bank of America predicted that the Modern and contemporary art market would improve over the coming year, signaling a sector that continues to demonstrate resilience as it adapts to epochal shifts in the global economy, geopolitics and the evolving profile, taste and behavior of collectors.

At the same time, a subtle but meaningful price adjustment is taking place, with the price-to-estimate ratio ticking upward—29 percent in 2024 compared to 27 percent in 2023—something that could help bolster buyer confidence. This shift suggests a healthier, more measured environment than the exuberant bull market of the pandemic era—one that may ultimately encourage buyers by presenting the opportunity to “buy at the right price.” A more predictable market, after all, is also a more reasonable and reliable one—better positioned to strengthen investor and collector confidence over the long term.