Starting in the second half of 2025, sentiment in what had been a tepid, tentative art market began to improve. Between the multibillion-dollar auctions in November, the dynamic sales at Frieze London and the affluence on show at Art Basel Paris—plus the sunny mood at Art Basel Miami Beach in December—something clearly shifted. The 10th edition of Dr. Clare McAndrew’s Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report, released last week, confirmed it: the global art market grew 4 percent in 2025 to reach an estimated $59.6 billion. And yet, even as many celebrate that growth, her report also shows a deeper structural reset underway beneath the surface.
While 2026 has brought a new escalation of global turmoil, from Venezuela to Iran, the art market has nonetheless entered the year with renewed confidence, and the first auctions of the season in London exemplify rising optimism. Yet while much of this renewed confidence was driven by the buoyant fall auction season—with total public auction sales rising 9 percent, particularly thanks to strong activity in works priced above $10 million—the report also gives reason for optimism in the gallery sector, with dealer sales rising 2 percent to $34.8 billion and smaller dealers reporting some of their strongest gains in years. The overall picture is of a market that remains active and dynamic across multiple tiers, even as its internal structure shifts.
Art fairs played a key role in supporting dealer returns, accounting for 35 percent of galleries’ total turnover in 2025, up 4 percent year-on-year and the highest level since 2022. At the same time, online sales continued to expand, accounting for 15 percent of total transactions and reflecting shifting buying behaviors driven by generational and geographic changes among collectors. Instagram and social media, in particular, have become essential sales and marketing tools, widely adopted by dealers, auction houses and artists alike as part of increasingly integrated online-and-offline models. Yet this visibility can also lead to lost sales for galleries: as artist-dedicated content proliferates online, collectors can more easily contact artists directly, sometimes purchasing works before even finding out which gallery represents them.
Overall, transaction volume across galleries and auctions remained broadly stable in 2025, rising 2 percent year-on-year to 41.5 million sales and, perhaps more importantly, becoming more evenly distributed across price tiers. This shift in price distribution—which the report partly attributes to the growth of online purchases—has caused transaction volumes to grow faster than values since the pandemic.
As for geographical distribution, sales in the U.S., U.K. and China accounted for 76 percent of the global total, with the U.S. maintaining its leading position, accounting for 44 percent of global sales by value, up 1 percent from the previous year. Despite the unpredictability of Trump’s new tariffs, sales reached $26.0 billion in 2025, marking 5 percent growth after two years of decline. Part of this rebound can again be attributed to the stellar results of the November auctions. The report highlights that the total value of works sold for more than $10 million at auction increased by nearly 40 percent. These auctions also confirmed, once again, that New York remains the largest global trade hub, where the highest-priced works are sold to both local and international buyers.
Still, feedback from dealers and auction houses surveyed for the report indicates that tariffs have negatively affected most businesses, not only through direct costs but also through higher shipping and insurance expenses, increased administrative burdens, inventory delays and broader uncertainty around sales and pricing. Overall, in 2025, the level of inward and outward trade in art remained below that of a decade earlier: imports were 15 percent lower than in 2015, and exports were 7 percent lower. The majority of U.S. exports were directed toward European art hubs such as Switzerland, France and Germany, which together with China accounted for 65 percent of exports, despite China’s share falling to 8 percent in 2025, largely due to the trade war between the two countries.
Meanwhile, sales in the U.K. reached $10.5 billion in 2025, up 2 percent from 2024, although most of the gains were concentrated in public auctions, which rose strongly, while gallery sales remained more subdued, rising only modestly by 2 percent. Sales in China were broadly stable, rising just over 1 percent to $8.5 billion, with most of the growth driven by domestic sales in Mainland China, while the more internationally oriented hub of Hong Kong saw a contraction. Demand in China remains concentrated at the very top end of the market and focused on domestic names, while the middle and lower tiers struggle as buyers remain cautious in the wake of the recent property crisis and the aftershocks of earlier speculation.
Looking at Europe more broadly, France confirmed its position as the fourth-largest art market worldwide, accounting for $4.5 billion in gallery and auction sales, up 9 percent and slightly above its 2019 level. Elsewhere, performance was mixed: markets in Switzerland (up 13 percent), Austria (up 13 percent) and Spain (up 6 percent) continued to grow, while Germany and Italy slowed, declining by 10 percent and 2 percent respectively, despite Italy recently lowering its VAT on art to 5 percent to facilitate transactions. In the rest of Asia, Japan experienced a slower year, with sales values down 1 percent in 2025, while South Korea recorded a renewed rebound, with the market growing 6 percent after a recent slowdown.
The auction market rebound
Total public auction sales rose 9 percent in 2025 to $20.7 billion, driven largely by stronger activity in the second half of the year and a series of record prices. By contrast, private sales operated by auction houses declined 5 percent to just under $4.2 billion. The high end has accounted for the majority of auction sales by value for most of the past decade. After a sharp contraction in 2024, the top tier recovered in 2025, accounting for 54 percent of total sales by value. At the same time, the middle market has eroded steadily since the early 2010s, reflecting an increasingly polarized market structure.
Globally, auction activity remained highly concentrated in the three largest markets—the U.S., China and the U.K.—which together accounted for 72 percent of total public auction sales by value, up 2 percent year-on-year. The U.S. retained its position as the leading market, with its share rising 3 percent to 34 percent. China’s share slipped slightly to 24 percent after briefly matching the U.S. in 2023, when the market reopened following pandemic lockdowns. The U.K. remained in third place with 14 percent of global sales, followed by France with 11 percent.
After two years of contraction, the U.S. public auction market rebounded sharply in 2025, with sales rising 20 percent year-over-year to just over $7 billion. Much of this resurgence was driven by a cluster of high-value lots sold in New York during the second half of the year. The market also became even more concentrated at the very top: all 10 of the year’s highest-priced works and 39 of the top 50 lots were sold in New York, reinforcing the U.S.’s dominance of the global $10 million-plus segment, where its share rose to 78 percent. China’s auction market grew more modestly to $4.9 billion, as stronger results among Mainland houses offset declines in Hong Kong, while rising operating costs and trade barriers continued to weigh on margins across the sector.
Overall, auction activity remained heavily concentrated in the high end. The value of works sold for $1 million or more increased 21 percent year-on-year, while the ultra-high tier above $10 million rose 30 percent. By contrast, sales below $50,000 declined slightly. Postwar and Contemporary art remained the largest sector of the fine art auction market in 2025, although the category continued its gradual correction. Its share of global sales value fell 6 percent to 45 percent, while its share of volume remained stable at 54 percent. Aggregate sales reached $4.5 billion, down 2 percent year-on-year and marking the fourth consecutive annual decline since the post-pandemic peak of $8.5 billion in 2021. Within the sector, Contemporary art sales were stable at $1.4 billion, while Postwar art declined 3 percent to $3.1 billion. Sales of works by living artists also fell 10 percent year-on-year, with fewer lots offered and prices continuing to moderate for some of the market’s newer names.
By contrast, Modern art reversed its three-year decline, rising 9 percent to $2.4 billion. Impressionist and Post-Impressionist art delivered the strongest growth, with values surging 47 percent to $1.8 billion, led by major works such as Gustav Klimt’s Bildnis Elisabeth Lederer (Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer) (1914-1916), which sold for $236 million. As collector attention shifts toward historically validated names, the Old Masters sector also rebounded, rising 30 percent to nearly $1.2 billion.
Paintings and sculpture continued to dominate the highest-priced segments of the auction market in 2025, accounting for 87 percent of the value of works sold above $1 million and 92 percent of those above $10 million, slightly down from 96 percent in 2024. The remaining share of the ultra-high-end market consisted mainly of textiles, drawings, watercolors and other works on paper.
While paintings accounted for the largest share of value across all price levels, the lower end of the market showed greater diversification across mediums. Among works sold for less than $50,000, paintings accounted for 37 percent of lots and 44 percent of total value, followed by drawings, watercolors and other works on paper at 19 percent, slightly ahead of prints and photography combined. Digital, film and video art remained marginal within the auction market, accounting for less than 1 percent of sales by value or volume across all price levels for the second consecutive year.
Signals of restructuring and adaptation
While news of galleries closing in 2025 has dominated headlines, the survey suggests these developments should be understood less as signs of collapse than as evidence of a necessary restructuring. The gallery segment is clearly recalibrating after the extraordinary expansion triggered by the pandemic boom and adapting to changing buying patterns and a more selective collector base. In the sample analyzed, 51 galleries reported closures—about 25 percent of those surveyed—while another 2 percent indicated they were downsizing, even as media reports pointed to at least 85 new gallery openings. Overall, however, the trajectory turned positive again in 2025, with global dealer sales rising 2 percent to an estimated $34.8 billion.
While sales slowed in 2023 and 2024, renewed dynamism in 2025 pushed the average number of works sold up 5 percent—from 139 to 146—outpacing growth in value. Much of this activity, however, was concentrated in the lower price tiers. Transactions below $50,000 rose from 73 percent in 2022 to 86 percent in 2023, stabilized at 85 percent in 2024 and increased again to 87 percent in 2025. For dealers with turnover under $1 million, 95 percent of sales fell below $50,000, while those with turnover between $1 million and $10 million reported 68 percent in that range, down from 74 percent in 2024. Even among the largest dealers, with turnover above $10 million, 35 percent of transactions were under $50,000. Across the market, only 1 percent of transactions exceeded $1 million, down from 4 percent in 2021. The exception remains the middle segment—between $250,000 and $500,000—where activity has remained largely stagnant.
Among the galleries surveyed, 42 percent reported higher sales, up 7 percent year-on-year, while 33 percent saw declines and 25 percent remained stable. Although primary market sales held broadly steady at an average of $1.3 million, dealers operating across both the primary and secondary markets performed better, with turnover rising 3 percent to $4.5 million—nearly four times the level of galleries working exclusively in the primary sector. Growth was strongest in older market segments. Old Master dealers posted a 9 percent increase to $9.8 million in average sales, Modern dealers rose 11 percent, and Postwar specialists reached $12.1 million, up 5 percent, while Contemporary-focused dealers remained largely flat at $1.8 million. Antiques and decorative art dealers also reported a 3 percent rise to an average just under $784,000, while antiquities dealers recorded a stronger 10 percent increase to just over $1 million.
Larger businesses saw the clearest improvement, with 48 percent of dealers above $10 million in turnover reporting higher sales. Profitability, however, remained uneven. While 43 percent of these larger dealers reported higher profits, smaller and mid-market galleries faced greater strain. At the same time, rising operating costs—particularly for shipping, logistics and art fairs—continued to pressure margins, even as art fairs accounted for a larger share of turnover at 35 percent, their highest level since 2022. Dealers have become increasingly cautious, with costs limiting the scope for experimentation and prompting galleries to participate only in fairs where they are confident of recouping their investment.
More broadly, the survey suggests that the gallery business is gradually shifting away from the globally expansionist model that defined the previous decade. Faced with rising costs and changing collector behavior, many galleries are pivoting toward more localized collecting patterns and more flexible operating structures. Audience focus is increasingly shifting toward domestic buyers, while a growing number of dealers are operating without permanent gallery spaces in hybrid models that combine dealership, advisory and curatorial roles.
Among the smallest dealers, the share of sales to domestic buyers rose 9 percent to 71 percent of transactions with private collectors. Even among dealers with turnover above $10 million—where international buyers remain dominant—the share of local sales increased to 29 percent, up 6 percent year-on-year. This turn toward the local is also reflected in a narrowing buyer base. Many dealers reported adopting more focused sales strategies centered on a smaller group of collectors—either deliberately or because transactions now require more time and personal engagement to close. The average number of buyers per dealer fell to 57, the lowest level since 2021, with the steepest declines reported among the smallest galleries. Yet these same smaller dealers remain critical to the market’s expansion, attracting a disproportionate share of first-time collectors who typically enter at lower price points. While this dynamic helps broaden the collector base and can support long-term market growth, converting new buyers into repeat purchasers—and retaining them over time—remains a central challenge for galleries.
As galleries adapt to structural changes in how collectors buy and engage with art, business models are also evolving toward more personal and relationship-driven formats. Fourteen percent of dealers reported operating without a permanent gallery space, up 6 percent from the previous year, while the share of online-only businesses remained stable at 4 percent. Meanwhile, the number of dealers choosing more flexible structures—working privately from offices or homes—has doubled to 10 percent of respondents.
Diversification in media and dependence on top artists
Sales by medium are becoming more diversified, although much of the market’s activity remains concentrated around traditional formats. Paintings continue to account for the largest share of dealer sales by value at 59 percent, followed by sculptures at 15 percent—both stable year-on-year—while works on paper declined slightly to 8 percent. Prints and multiples increased their share to 12 percent, driven largely by the growing prominence of photography, which doubled from 3 percent in 2024 to 6 percent in 2025. Newer media, however, are gradually gaining ground. Sales of digital, film and video art rose from 1 percent to 3 percent of dealer turnover, although they remain below their 2022 peak. While only 11 percent of dealers reported selling works in these mediums, those who did saw their share of sales rise to 10 percent, reflecting a slow but steady increase in collector interest in digital-based art.
In their effort to respond to both collectors’ preferences and artists’ evolving practices, primary market dealers expanded their rosters in 2025, representing an average of 29 artists, up from 23 in 2024 and the highest level in four years. The increase was particularly pronounced among the smallest galleries, where those with turnover below $250,000 reported an average increase from 23 to 30 artists. Some dealers noted they had intentionally broadened their programs to attract new and more diverse collectors.
Yet this expansion has also heightened the sector’s structural dependence on a handful of commercially successful artists. Galleries often rely on profits from their top sellers to subsidize the development of emerging or less commercially established artists, creating a cross-subsidy model that supports experimentation while concentrating financial risk. In 2025, dealers reported that roughly one-third of their sales came from their single highest-selling artist, while the top three together accounted for 58 percent of revenue, up from 53 percent in 2023 and 51 percent in 2022. This dependence is even stronger among smaller galleries, where 65 percent of sales come from their top three artists. As a result, smaller dealers are the most exposed when leading artists depart or when their markets weaken.
One of the more encouraging findings of the survey is the continued progress in gender representation. In 2025, primary market galleries reached gender parity, while across all dealers, women accounted for 45 percent of represented artists, up from 41 percent in 2024 and 35 percent in 2018. Gains in commercial outcomes have been slower but remain significant: female artists accounted for 37 percent of sales by value, up 2 percent year-on-year and from 28 percent in 2018, driven largely by primary market galleries, where women accounted for 44 percent of sales.
However, disparities remain across market tiers. Smaller dealers with turnover below $250,000 reported the strongest representation, with women accounting for 55 percent of artists and 43 percent of sales. Among galleries with turnover above $10 million, these shares fell to 35 percent of artists and 27 percent of sales, suggesting that although diversity has improved at the entry level, relatively few women artists are able to move quickly into the highest commercial ranks.
Meanwhile, museum acquisitions—often critical to building artists’ careers—remained broadly stable for galleries in 2025. Museums accounted for 7 percent of dealer sales by value, with a slightly higher share directed to local institutions. Secondary-market dealers reported the highest share of museum sales at 8 percent, while larger galleries accounted for the greatest proportion overall, with dealers above $1 million in turnover reporting 9 percent of sales to museums, compared with just 2 percent among those below $250,000. The $250,000-500,000 segment also stood out, with museum sales reaching 14 percent. For most dealers turning over less than $10 million annually, sales to local institutions exceeded those to international museums. Among the largest galleries, however, the pattern reversed, with 6 percent of sales going to international museums and 3 percent to local institutions. Sales to private institutions remained relatively stable at 4 percent overall, ranging from 1 percent for secondary market dealers to 5 percent for those operating across both primary and secondary markets and reaching as high as 16 percent among the largest dealers.
Ultimately, while still below its 2022 peak, the market showed signs of renewed stability as it continues to recalibrate to a rapidly shifting landscape shaped by evolving collector behavior, new audience expectations and the complex forces that have driven its accelerated global expansion over the past decade. What emerges from the report is a portrait of a market simultaneously recovering and restructuring—adapting to geopolitical volatility, rising operating costs and changing patterns of demand. Although aggregate sales grew, performance remained uneven across sectors and segments, and profitability across the trade stayed under pressure in 2025, with 38 percent of dealers and 40 percent of auction houses reporting lower profits than the previous year. Still, confidence heading into 2026 remains cautiously optimistic: 43 percent of dealers expect sales to improve, while 38 percent anticipate stable performance.
The year ahead will likely see the art market navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical and economic environment—new conflicts, trade frictions and broader financial uncertainty that may not yet be fully reflected in sales data but are already shaping sentiment. Political and economic instability once again ranked as the top concern for dealers, as it did in 2024 and 2023, with many describing collectors as increasingly cautious and selective in major acquisitions. In this environment, survival and success are likely to depend less on expansion than on strategic recalibration: containing rising operating costs, strengthening relationships with existing collectors and cultivating the next generation of buyers. For galleries and auction houses alike, the challenge ahead is not simply to weather volatility but to evolve alongside a market whose structure, geography and collector base are being quietly rewritten in real time—in a world undergoing systematic and historic change.
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